It didn’t feel like Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500 last week – it felt like he was simply the lone survivor. Despite one massive explosion and tons of wreckage, Kenseth eventually took the checkered flag in NASCAR’s first and most highly publicized event of the year. From here on out, though, beginning with this Sunday’s Subway Fresh Fit 500, it will be a lot more about substance than it will be about style. And the fact that last Monday’s race felt far more like an aberration than anything else, it’s not surprising that despite his victory, Kenseth is still only 14/1 in this week’s odds to win Subway Fresh Fit 500.

Last year’s winner Jeff Gordon is 10/1 to take the prize this year, but having prior successful history only makes you the top dog if you have the most successful prior history out of anyone on the track. That’s not the case for Gordon this time around. Jimmie Johnson has won four times at the Phoenix altogether (compared to Gordon’s two wins), and he’s 9/1 to win the race on Sunday. (Of course, a 42nd place finish at Daytona doesn’t evoke much in the way of confidence for this year.) Then again, Jeff Burton (35/1), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18/1), Kevin Harvick (11/1) and Mark Martin (30/1) have also all won twice – so maybe the rule doesn’t always hold true.

A few other interesting racers of note: Greg Biffle finished third last week, but his consistently underwhelming performances on this track probably explain why he’s only 15/1. Carl Edwards finished eighth at Daytona, so his 15/2 odds feel about right for a former winner. Tony Stewart is another former winner, so his 7/1 (odds on race favorite) odds make sense too.

Coming off that absolutely nuts Daytona 500, we’re not really at the point where we can accurately gauge where anybody stands right now. Following this week’s race, which should presumably be a lot more normal, it will be easier to get a feel for who’s hot and who’s not this season.

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